TEN OF THE BEST BETS THIS WEEKEND (STATISTICALLY)

I like to use statistics as part of my selection process when assessing the weekends football. I would therefore like to share the teams that the pure statisticians are likely to be following this weekend.

TEAM WITH THE LONGEST WINNING STREAK
Anderlecht (Belgium): 10 matches
Next match: Lokeren (away), 26/01/13. Odds to win 1.75
Comment: Lokeren themselves are third in the table and have won their last three games in a row.

TEAM WITH THE LONGEST WINNING STREAK IN HOME LEAGUE MATCHES WITH A HOME GAME THIS WEEKEND
Elche (Spanish secunda) 10 matches
Next match: Hercules (home), 26/01/13. Odds to win 1.62
Comment: Hercules are second bottom and have lost their last two away games. There could be some value in this selection.

TEAM WITH THE LONGEST WINNING STREAK IN AWAY LEAGUE MATCHES WITH AN AWAY GAME THIS WEEKEND
Benfica (Portugal): 6 matches
Next match: Braga (away), 26/01/13. Odds to win 2.1
Benfica are odds against as they face third place Braga who have won four of their last five at home, but two of those wins were against the bottom two sides in the division. Worth a second look at these odds.

TEAM WITH THE LONGEST LOSING STREAK
Colchester: 9 matches
Next match: Walsall (home), 26/01/13. Odds for Walsall win 2.6
Comment: Walsall have won their last four games in a row and two of their last three away from home. This could be close to being the best value bet of the weekend.

TEAM WITH MOST CONSECUTIVE GAMES ENDING WITH OVER 2.5 GOALS
Barcelona (Spain): 14 matches
Next match: Osasuna (home), 27/01/13. Odds for over 2.5 goals 1.25
Comment: Barcelona have averaged 3.32 goals per game, but Osasuna’s last six matches have only included two that have involved over 2.5 goals.

TEAM WITH HIGHEST PERCENTAGE OF GAMES ENDING WITH OVER 2.5 GOALS THIS SEASON
PSV Eindhoven: 89% (17 of 19 matches)
Next match: Heracles (away), 26/01/13. Odds for over 2.5 goals 1.4
Comment: Five of Heracles last six matches have also involved over 2.5 goals. There could be some value in this selection.

TEAM WITH MOST CONSECUTIVE GAMES ENDING WITH UNDER 2.5 GOALS
Kerkyra (Greece): 13 matches
Next match: Aris (home), 28/01/13. Odds for under 2.5 goals 1.44
Comment: The main reason for this run of ‘unders’ is Kerkyra’s inability to score (they have not scored in their last six matches). Aris are also amongst the most goal shy with less than a goal per game this season and so I feel there is definitely some value here.

TEAM WITH BIGGEST WIN PERCENTAGE THIS SEASON
Barcelona: 89%
Next match: Osasuna (home), 27/01/13. Odds to win 1.08
Comment: Odds of 1.08 are not for me.

TEAM WITH HIGHEST PERCENTAGE OF GAMES ENDING AS A DRAW THIS SEASON
Samsunspor (Turkey, 1 Lig): 72% (13 of 18 matches)
Next match: Goztepe (home), 27/01/13. Odds of draw 3.20
Comment: Interesting statistic this one, especially when the odds for a draw are reasonably good. However, their opponents Goztepe have only three draws all season.

TEAM WITH LOWEST PERCENTAGE OF WINS THIS SEASON
Quevilly (French national): 0% (W0, D7, L12)
Next match: Boulogne (away), 25/01/13. Lay odds (to follow when available)
Comment: I will add the lay odds as a reply when there is some liquidity on Betfair. However Boulogne have lost four of their last six and three of Quevilly’s last four games have been draws. Could this suggest their first win is just around the corner? This would seem an ideal game. One to avoid perhaps?

RECOMMENDED BETS
Walsall to win @ 2.6 (BetVictor)
Elche to win @ 1.62 (Bet365)
Heracles V PSV to have over 2.5 goals @ 1.4 (Bet365)
Kerkyra V Aris to have under 2.5 goals @ 1.44 (Bet365)

Good luck.