Tuesday, 5 February 2013
Monday, 4 February 2013
Malta v Northern Ireland - ko 18.30
Malta have won 2 out of their last 5 games. They may have lost all of
their World Cup Qualifiers so far, but they have won their last 5
friendly games, albeit against lesser opposition than Ireland have
played. A wins a win though and they will have just as much confidence
as the Irish and with ex Coventry and Barnsley Michael Mifsud they have a
goal scorer. He is Malta’s top scorer with 26 goals in 92 games and the
Irish will do well to keep an eye on him tonight.
Northern Ireland need a win here to give them confidence and momentum to go into their World Cup Qualifiers. They haven’t won since 2008 when they beat the Faroe Islands 4-0, but have drawn 4 out of their last 5 games. The last 3 games have ended 1-1 and their problem, as it has been for a long time, is scoring goals. They are playing a team that are 48 places below them in the Fifa rankings, so they really should be beating them.
These 2 haven’t met since 2005, but Malta have never beaten Northern Ireland. They have met 6 times with NI winning 5 and 1 draw. The 5 NI wins have been won to nil. Northern Ireland win @ 2.15 with BetVictor
Northern Ireland need a win here to give them confidence and momentum to go into their World Cup Qualifiers. They haven’t won since 2008 when they beat the Faroe Islands 4-0, but have drawn 4 out of their last 5 games. The last 3 games have ended 1-1 and their problem, as it has been for a long time, is scoring goals. They are playing a team that are 48 places below them in the Fifa rankings, so they really should be beating them.
These 2 haven’t met since 2005, but Malta have never beaten Northern Ireland. They have met 6 times with NI winning 5 and 1 draw. The 5 NI wins have been won to nil. Northern Ireland win @ 2.15 with BetVictor
England v Brazil - 19.30
Roy Hodgson has named a mixture of youth and experience in this England
squad. There have been a few injuries this weekend that will leave him
without Defoe, Carrick and maybe Sturridge. England were on a decent
run, unbeaten in 5 before a wakeup call against Sweden last time out.
They were brought crashing down to earth with Zlatan Ibrahimovic scoring
the 4 goals in a 4-2 defeat. Life doesn’t get any easier in this
landmark friendly against the South American Champions. They will need
to be on their game tonight, otherwise it could be embarrassing.
Brazil look to have gone through their transition period and Manager Menezes has them back to winning ways and playing the football that is expected of them. They were unbeaten in 7 and then lost to Argentina last time out. Neymar looks to be their main man, but they have plenty of talent to choose from which includes the Chelsea boys Ocsar and Ramires. Goals in this game tonight I feel with England’s Joe Hart being the busier of the two keepers.
You have to go back to 1990 to when England beat Brazil. Most of the games have been pretty close, but Brazil have won 6 to England’s 1 and there have been 5 draws. There hasn’t been more than 1 goal between them in the last 5 meetings. Draw game @ 3.5 with Stan James
Brazil look to have gone through their transition period and Manager Menezes has them back to winning ways and playing the football that is expected of them. They were unbeaten in 7 and then lost to Argentina last time out. Neymar looks to be their main man, but they have plenty of talent to choose from which includes the Chelsea boys Ocsar and Ramires. Goals in this game tonight I feel with England’s Joe Hart being the busier of the two keepers.
You have to go back to 1990 to when England beat Brazil. Most of the games have been pretty close, but Brazil have won 6 to England’s 1 and there have been 5 draws. There hasn’t been more than 1 goal between them in the last 5 meetings. Draw game @ 3.5 with Stan James
TEN OF THE BEST BETS THIS WEEKEND (STATISTICALLY)
I like to use statistics as part of my selection process when assessing
the weekends football. I would therefore like to share the teams that
the pure statisticians are likely to be following this weekend.
TEAM WITH THE LONGEST WINNING STREAK
Anderlecht (Belgium): 10 matches
Next match: Lokeren (away), 26/01/13. Odds to win 1.75
Comment: Lokeren themselves are third in the table and have won their last three games in a row.
TEAM WITH THE LONGEST WINNING STREAK IN HOME LEAGUE MATCHES WITH A HOME GAME THIS WEEKEND
Elche (Spanish secunda) 10 matches
Next match: Hercules (home), 26/01/13. Odds to win 1.62
Comment: Hercules are second bottom and have lost their last two away games. There could be some value in this selection.
TEAM WITH THE LONGEST WINNING STREAK IN AWAY LEAGUE MATCHES WITH AN AWAY GAME THIS WEEKEND
Benfica (Portugal): 6 matches
Next match: Braga (away), 26/01/13. Odds to win 2.1
Benfica are odds against as they face third place Braga who have won four of their last five at home, but two of those wins were against the bottom two sides in the division. Worth a second look at these odds.
TEAM WITH THE LONGEST LOSING STREAK
Colchester: 9 matches
Next match: Walsall (home), 26/01/13. Odds for Walsall win 2.6
Comment: Walsall have won their last four games in a row and two of their last three away from home. This could be close to being the best value bet of the weekend.
TEAM WITH MOST CONSECUTIVE GAMES ENDING WITH OVER 2.5 GOALS
Barcelona (Spain): 14 matches
Next match: Osasuna (home), 27/01/13. Odds for over 2.5 goals 1.25
Comment: Barcelona have averaged 3.32 goals per game, but Osasuna’s last six matches have only included two that have involved over 2.5 goals.
TEAM WITH HIGHEST PERCENTAGE OF GAMES ENDING WITH OVER 2.5 GOALS THIS SEASON
PSV Eindhoven: 89% (17 of 19 matches)
Next match: Heracles (away), 26/01/13. Odds for over 2.5 goals 1.4
Comment: Five of Heracles last six matches have also involved over 2.5 goals. There could be some value in this selection.
TEAM WITH MOST CONSECUTIVE GAMES ENDING WITH UNDER 2.5 GOALS
Kerkyra (Greece): 13 matches
Next match: Aris (home), 28/01/13. Odds for under 2.5 goals 1.44
Comment: The main reason for this run of ‘unders’ is Kerkyra’s inability to score (they have not scored in their last six matches). Aris are also amongst the most goal shy with less than a goal per game this season and so I feel there is definitely some value here.
TEAM WITH BIGGEST WIN PERCENTAGE THIS SEASON
Barcelona: 89%
Next match: Osasuna (home), 27/01/13. Odds to win 1.08
Comment: Odds of 1.08 are not for me.
TEAM WITH HIGHEST PERCENTAGE OF GAMES ENDING AS A DRAW THIS SEASON
Samsunspor (Turkey, 1 Lig): 72% (13 of 18 matches)
Next match: Goztepe (home), 27/01/13. Odds of draw 3.20
Comment: Interesting statistic this one, especially when the odds for a draw are reasonably good. However, their opponents Goztepe have only three draws all season.
TEAM WITH LOWEST PERCENTAGE OF WINS THIS SEASON
Quevilly (French national): 0% (W0, D7, L12)
Next match: Boulogne (away), 25/01/13. Lay odds (to follow when available)
Comment: I will add the lay odds as a reply when there is some liquidity on Betfair. However Boulogne have lost four of their last six and three of Quevilly’s last four games have been draws. Could this suggest their first win is just around the corner? This would seem an ideal game. One to avoid perhaps?
RECOMMENDED BETS
Walsall to win @ 2.6 (BetVictor)
Elche to win @ 1.62 (Bet365)
Heracles V PSV to have over 2.5 goals @ 1.4 (Bet365)
Kerkyra V Aris to have under 2.5 goals @ 1.44 (Bet365)
Good luck.
TEAM WITH THE LONGEST WINNING STREAK
Anderlecht (Belgium): 10 matches
Next match: Lokeren (away), 26/01/13. Odds to win 1.75
Comment: Lokeren themselves are third in the table and have won their last three games in a row.
TEAM WITH THE LONGEST WINNING STREAK IN HOME LEAGUE MATCHES WITH A HOME GAME THIS WEEKEND
Elche (Spanish secunda) 10 matches
Next match: Hercules (home), 26/01/13. Odds to win 1.62
Comment: Hercules are second bottom and have lost their last two away games. There could be some value in this selection.
TEAM WITH THE LONGEST WINNING STREAK IN AWAY LEAGUE MATCHES WITH AN AWAY GAME THIS WEEKEND
Benfica (Portugal): 6 matches
Next match: Braga (away), 26/01/13. Odds to win 2.1
Benfica are odds against as they face third place Braga who have won four of their last five at home, but two of those wins were against the bottom two sides in the division. Worth a second look at these odds.
TEAM WITH THE LONGEST LOSING STREAK
Colchester: 9 matches
Next match: Walsall (home), 26/01/13. Odds for Walsall win 2.6
Comment: Walsall have won their last four games in a row and two of their last three away from home. This could be close to being the best value bet of the weekend.
TEAM WITH MOST CONSECUTIVE GAMES ENDING WITH OVER 2.5 GOALS
Barcelona (Spain): 14 matches
Next match: Osasuna (home), 27/01/13. Odds for over 2.5 goals 1.25
Comment: Barcelona have averaged 3.32 goals per game, but Osasuna’s last six matches have only included two that have involved over 2.5 goals.
TEAM WITH HIGHEST PERCENTAGE OF GAMES ENDING WITH OVER 2.5 GOALS THIS SEASON
PSV Eindhoven: 89% (17 of 19 matches)
Next match: Heracles (away), 26/01/13. Odds for over 2.5 goals 1.4
Comment: Five of Heracles last six matches have also involved over 2.5 goals. There could be some value in this selection.
TEAM WITH MOST CONSECUTIVE GAMES ENDING WITH UNDER 2.5 GOALS
Kerkyra (Greece): 13 matches
Next match: Aris (home), 28/01/13. Odds for under 2.5 goals 1.44
Comment: The main reason for this run of ‘unders’ is Kerkyra’s inability to score (they have not scored in their last six matches). Aris are also amongst the most goal shy with less than a goal per game this season and so I feel there is definitely some value here.
TEAM WITH BIGGEST WIN PERCENTAGE THIS SEASON
Barcelona: 89%
Next match: Osasuna (home), 27/01/13. Odds to win 1.08
Comment: Odds of 1.08 are not for me.
TEAM WITH HIGHEST PERCENTAGE OF GAMES ENDING AS A DRAW THIS SEASON
Samsunspor (Turkey, 1 Lig): 72% (13 of 18 matches)
Next match: Goztepe (home), 27/01/13. Odds of draw 3.20
Comment: Interesting statistic this one, especially when the odds for a draw are reasonably good. However, their opponents Goztepe have only three draws all season.
TEAM WITH LOWEST PERCENTAGE OF WINS THIS SEASON
Quevilly (French national): 0% (W0, D7, L12)
Next match: Boulogne (away), 25/01/13. Lay odds (to follow when available)
Comment: I will add the lay odds as a reply when there is some liquidity on Betfair. However Boulogne have lost four of their last six and three of Quevilly’s last four games have been draws. Could this suggest their first win is just around the corner? This would seem an ideal game. One to avoid perhaps?
RECOMMENDED BETS
Walsall to win @ 2.6 (BetVictor)
Elche to win @ 1.62 (Bet365)
Heracles V PSV to have over 2.5 goals @ 1.4 (Bet365)
Kerkyra V Aris to have under 2.5 goals @ 1.44 (Bet365)
Good luck.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)